Ages of Times' Evolution
"Processes that are non-ergodic, thus unable to shake their history out and free themselves are said to yield path dependent outcomes. A path dependent stochastic process is one whose asymptotic distribution evolves as a consequence (function of) the process’s own history". "Many studies in Economics and other disciplines have been reporting distributions following power-law behavior (i.e distributions of incomes (Pareto’s law), city sizes (Zipf’s law), frequencies of words in long sequences of text etc.). This widespread observed regularity has been explained in many ways: generalized Lotka-Volterra (GLV) equations, self-organized criticality and highly optimized tolerance.
Now this ability to shake their history suppose that the real processes are not exactly following the mathematical model be it probabilistc or exact: deterministic. Something that really is far from already achieved; meanwhile in traditional formal expressions studies, in terms of probabilities and statistics, mathematical behaviors are averaged and smoothed and also their major trend(s) are supposed to be enough strong, to coincide with average. Byside of probability, models channel ergodic, random, aleatory or stochastic variability assumptions (some how these terms are synonymous).
Olicognographs' implicit assumptions are that: formally and scientifically humane economics of reality can be modelled by one or some logical networks, graph algebra to investigate and some parts conventioned democratically since approached and designed democratically. Then more or less replicated (for the reality) and / or reproducible but adaptable (for the model) along time's evolution joining, the model an anchored network grounded with scientific fundamentals. Important is the 'biothermoeconomical' graphs-networks: of life constraints. With special care for conditions of functioning, definitions of entities (by multivalued probabilistic logics and mathematics), many more consistent kinds of mathematical behaviors at multiple scale, pieces of similarity, analogical reasoning and testing, non linear and many complex sorts of dynamic behaviors including propeties or conditions assumed by 'higher criteria'. Important type of criteria being ethical and moral that could most of the main basket of essential economics. Time's evolution may mix continuous dynamics at various scales and discrete definitions first of primary unit (to hope that an organism does not die prematurelly, and not stop any of its basic functions) as well as step-wise, for some aspects of its evolution: stress - adaptation or transformation - maturation - functionning -regression.
"The evolution of the phenomena exhibiting power-law behavior is often considered to involve a varying, but size independent, proportional growth rate, which mathematically can be modeled by Geometric Brownian motion (GBM: randomeness). Complex systems evolve according to stochastic models that can simply be modeled by a GBM equation. Together with the evolution of the system there is always a definite time of observation and evolution itself that must be considered a random variable as well. This fact changes drastically the natural distribution function of the GBM model (i.e. a lognormal distribution) providing a power law at its place. These systems are all around us and represent the complexity of life". GBM catches something more then multilinear or to few variables models. Complex real systems have volume. Byside of simplication it is to observe that living systems have learn to use simplified subsystems like membrane for separation, filament-tubules (at macrolevel and with more than 1D devices) to structure and organise their own subsystems, separation, non-linear effects).
We have to care that complex systems probably do not follow the formal categories of a type of pure mathematic behavior as homogeneous and numerical pure way, not making formalism an easy affair. The evolution has provided with a unit of 'meso-complexity': topos; which is since where is mastered the reproduction of their macro-complex unit immersion (in an logical environment), which transformations should inspirethe formalism, providing a modelling of system (not only explained by the assembly of parts, and a reduced model by a partition and subparts assembled by simple 'neutral' operations as traditionnaly existing in usual models. Real processes may not maintain all the memory of previous path-dependent evolutions, since their phenomenological evidence, as well as have depended on an economy of selection. Mesounits are kept at a basic minimum cost of maintenance: organisms had not before all the time and will not have in the future all there time to adapt since surrounding stocks of sustain. Structures, mechanisms, functions and reactions they use, activate, adapt, reactivate, promote, enhance, empower and specialize. Organisms face too, more or less brutal and unexpected emergencies and must survive, before being able to adapt to any situations, be this adaptation psychological (mental processes) or biological the delays allowed to think or to adapt inner metabolic pathways as well as the actions they could manage to use and or transform their environment.
"Complex systems in physics, engineering, biology, economics, and finance, are often characterized by the occurence of fat-tailed probability distributions. In many cases there is an asymptotic decay with a power-law. For these types of systems more general versions of statistical mechanics have been developed, in which power laws are effectively derived from maximization principles of more general entropy functions, subject to suitable constraints". Now, what emerge from these physics quotations, is not what we could have found the very right laws of ageing, but the they are naturally contained since soon in complex systems. These, selected, ones are from undeterministic world or: unexpectably poorly sensitive to manipulations".
Environment has biorates of renewal, as well different kinds of flows, some surprising forms of renewal. Say for example fires in prairies or savannahs ecosystems, leaves aroung trees arid desert or mangrove's flows, old high trees fallings in humid tropical forests; all define a micro-environments suitable to life empowerment. Of course here big questions are about how our anthropic activities prevent these renewals. If our anthropic activities tend to limits natural "creative destructions" required by other lives and the ways we disturb these to make our own artificial cycles, so named also by Schumpeter as the core characteristic of capitalism, but so wastefull of environment, more to preserved the big profits of our poppers addict's (if not hard drugs dealers) speculators, renamed by themselves 'capitalist investors'; so ramshaking jobs of real productions. Considering also the thermondynamical cost of transformations made to develop the present economical processes and their rates of consumption of 'raw poorly biological materials', to maintain the corresponding economical systems; it is very probable that if calculated and analyzed, plenty of obsolescence pushed by modern industries are just simple trajectories to exhaustion very artificial, and so, much gain of modernity is, no more, than empoverishment.
Formally because of very usual surprises, reversals, changes of mind, changes of rules of games, unsustainable rigidities development in bocoming too complex societies, paradigmatically exhausting before lreasonable life expectancy, and so on; models have now to consider bifurcations, non linearity, pieces of trajectories of time, transformations, times series more phenomeno-logically related to what we better have to do. To look at trajectories with a better understanding of care to have with averages and with smoothing effects, relations appraisal of ergodic-brownian motions. Renewal of modelling perspectives have started since 2 or 3 decades, like for considering economics as dynamics systems and so on. Often still with the same predictive intentions of money-wiseless expressed trends for the sake of so unfair instable financial markets. These, despite all what been dedicated to their formal means are still full of impredictabilities, produce crisis and so on. Also then the big question of the utilities of these sorts of krashes they regularly have, for the whole biological-ecological societies; meanwhile having seen in previous lessons that biological-ecological reaiity of ecosystems live on maintenance of critical disequilibria (much wiser those ones), allowing constructive development of the neguentropy/entropy balances. At sight, also to consider wiser uses of scarce resources of formalism could not be better dedicated to understand and help more essential critical disequilibria management instead waste so much for results so far from good achievement of financial markets.
Economics approaches and relations to biological-ecological worlds as ecosystems may have a much better cognitive redesign for coping for better future options than those of financial assets non anchored to humane values. Development of formalisms caring non stabilities, non continuous asymptotic misunderstood inifinities, not improperly smoothed ignorance, not pretended unerratic motions all more essential phenomena needed to be understood: like cobordism, bifurcations, inflexions, catastrophic changes, partial reversals, economical wise feed-backs, switches and changes for better thinkings, threshold effects and so on defining others types of awared management. There is also to promote smarter management of modular systems of calculus, kinds of closer to humans number systems, mathematical objects like monoid, matroid, grid, topologic balls and pre-topologic concepts. Models with complex units as moduliis having characteristic values in scales, exponents, signs, not unique number of variables, networked algebras, complex patterns of change and so on.
Olicognograph related to this page expresses sorts of complex switches of economical perspectives, formal expression to establish, symbolically to suggest changes of mind as required in formal questions and issues.
Times' of our Engineered Anthropizations
Infrastructures shape the times of our humane transformations and pathways of development, including cares of environment as well as more or less manageable secondary, adverse effects. What about the ends of constructions of time they determine? Observing that all our anthropic transformations are wasting a lot of energies and damaging environments: what would be the proper use of time(s) of infrastructures? - since we intermediate and probably are not doing better, meanwhile plenty of our waste is not organic, so should wait our end of disturbance, to get involved back then in geochemical recycles and biological ones. Care or not 'Now What?'
Debate on sustainability are now considering better the life costs of our transformations. In Infrastructures, "life cycle costs study may include:
- Investment (plot, materials, transport, construction, labour, machines, fuel),
- Operation (energy, electricity),
- Maintenance (repairs, replacement),
- Demolishing & recycling/disposal (labour, fuel, transport, machines, material).
- Manage life cycle costs defining the project’s scope, level of quality and budget,
- Monitor components: at the beginning maintenance is not still a huge and safe program.
- Care to observe before adapt it for savings.
- Investment should see basic functionning and look forward, to evolve, but not too much: sophistication has its costs, increased if stucking it to support what will turn obsolete or in excess when having been too ambitious at the moment of investment."
Think also with enhancement, empowerment and reinvestment."Life cycle costs can be minimized through:
- Compact and simple design, which is faster to construct and easier to maintain.
- Avoid complicated aesthetic forms especially if too soon and concern by public margin of creativity.
- Prefer the aesthetic of simplicity since the start.
- Care not to accumulate changes, slowly affecting good reasons of design, like concerning maintenance or safety.
- Remind that energy, electricity and waters are flows with variations of demand. They should not coincide to disrupt.
- Use local and robust materials, machines and equipments that could be locally repaired.
- Care as far as mechanisms be explicit, and technologies to hard to believe or comprehend."
"In infrastructures there can be different effects for time's:
- Maintenance is often underesteemed in the games of interests,
- Hardly positive delays are really thought when thinking about the renewal of business and its interests,
- Pretending to be more profitable or cost efficient can miss the essential or core function of the investment,
- Plenty of looking like investments do not return properly on cycles of wise production, neither they are suitable for a recycling
- If forced obsolescence can be seen as "creative destruction" it forces too investment on (too?) fast-changing technologies.
- Meanwhile these may not serve priorities, but capricious disqualifications, do not respect times' frames either of the same system either of other depending ones. "
"Sort of related concepts could be:
- Return on cost and profitability point or pivotal point (if you incorporate strategy)
- Hazard and risk (where learning effects are important, for all the system)
- Competitive unfair disqualification (promoting monopolies)
- Exhaustion of profitability (only by circumstantial effects),
- Dynamics of value,
- Curves of learning."
"Implications of times are both physical as accountable. Accounting should be shaped so to assume productive unit, entreprise's or firm's continuity, but 'cleaning' sustainability of friendly environment social area. Time's decays appear as amortization or decreasing values of immobilized assets or equipments. Credit given to the amortization account sets irreversible and fatal depreciation affecting time's flow. Making that balance's active does not show exagerated value, preserving benefit from overvalue. Difficulties come from that depreciation cannot be annoted contemporaneously to the depreciation of asset, or is uncertain duration of asset. Some difficulties arise like when equipment still producing well with overall profits of the system but able competitors, than with no value, out the one given by surrounding system of management. In complex systems costs of replacement may not be so small. Other investisments may look like well profitable but risky when to be incorporated or fragile or even not compatible with regular uses. Any new equipment can question the existing stock".
One should care if all steps result in gains and / or if all gains or benefits can have been taken as a regular process of systemic improvment. Too narrow perspective may miss that benefits are both diachronic and synchronic and the interest of any (and of all) should not miss neither be miscalculabted. Because, projects feed backs, competition there can be benefits from eliminating competitors. So change is programmed and forcing obsolescence, more to affect others rather than respecting the utility of all others. For example, those last decades it has often been the policy to make the public services look like obsolete and disqualified them, to transfer its functions to wrongly pretended more up-to-date private firms that turned well known thereafter inflating their results to attract 'trust' almost just before failing.
When to Decide on Time of Obsolescence (or disqualify)
Obsolescence or ageing costs or shortened average expected life durations rise the time's frame of investment perspectives. Faster than physical ageing, obsolescence turns, with sustainability aim, an economic problem too, since supposed obsolescence enhance dynamics of the Levathian, may not decrease its inertia and so accelerate costly transformations and increase energetic costs and losses. Uncompetitive mantra overvalue of the disqualification of many factors of production. Businesses' environment are not neutral. It is a marketing argument. Over all of this the trend of value of the good, fashion is this sort of economics based on social discrimination (poshes classes promoting societies' fights and struggles) with fake obsolescence, force virtual visual disqualification. This may not be so begnin if the priviledges of classes identifies and exclude after appearancies.
The revolution of rising (dispeculative) expectations accelerated the fake obsolescence of real economy. Firms have nevertheless some means to cope with vagaries of fashioned minds. For example with variety management, modular parts, delaying as far as possible the 'specification' of the product: slight addenta making it looks like different. Sort of technological snobism is in search of these superficial power purchase and non really functional distinctions. Be it only to match demand for more work this will not be negative. Also to intent to prevent the constitution of stocks, but stay in conditions to change models and products as soon as possible, avoid the incentive to sell products, already seen obsolete. Obsolescence illusions may be contagious. Many cultures lacking of traditions, in the modern things be done and well done, imagine that they need the best of the best, before results as well as before having learned and absorb properly and carefully what they buy, import or receive. Behind, there are often groups of interest in artificial imports, enough central to manipulate regulations and prevent regional of national communities necessary gains in density and management of the 'concentrations' they need for structuring for good governance. Of course as one philosopher insisted to suggest that you learn from mistakes yes but if, that is really your mistakes and if their are really understandable, for a community or most of its members. Infrastructure as compared to 'modern and smart environments of posh suburbs' undeserving public investments but having them and unable to imagine appropriated environments for the remain of their fellow citizens. At the opposite, urban places disqualifying their people and infrastructuring processes of rehabilitation simply replacing their inhabitants.
Too, tthe negative gauge of superior culture, always pretending to be more adapted to modernity pushing obsolescence's disqualifications producing anomy and antagonism between communities. Even though it has been shown that it is by self-maintaining strong cultural values that social groups succeed to incorporate innovations positivelly. When not a culture reacting to such disqualifications is not judged after the hegemonical waves, by the superior, with and ethical eye and moral values disastrous and invaded by misery for the weak one, obliged, these to warrant a fair treatment to too high levels of trade relations. In the same instance so many trainings for requalification programs of poors more for making their students assume their obsolence. Starting the training at childish levels and providing contains without sense of purpose; more undervaluing rather than empowering, escalading losses of working habits, underscoring the capacity of real knowledge.
In complex economical systems, management of times' should balance the sensibility of overall profitability at each links, pieces or elements in the chain or transcendental links to all the web of social production. Qualify obsolete often states the decision for change. Obsolescence is contagious it may extend to all the elements depending on, even of a core, to burry them all the same way.
- Incorporation: a phase which is the openness of system to transformations, locally produce by some project or investment,
- Transformations: where interactions of sub-system of transformations can be passive with energies exchanges, heat productions or incorporations, and so on; or somehow active paper like when catalysis or nonlinear empowerment,
- Renormalization of structures and post-transformations adjustements, by the products obtained or functions enhanced, developed and advantages taken or inconvenients assumes; by neigboring sub-systems, and with relief,
- Long terms effects eventually emerging and eventually used by existing or establishment of new processes.
- Conjectures up make time sensitive: if you want to catch profits you should look like not disqualified. There is too a normative effect and the profits made by doing like others. Now, with complexity the paradox is that effort to catch the meaning of integrative processes are condemned to turn obsolescente if not even at the same time of achievment. The only intent not condemned to that pressive complexity on comprehensive mechanisms of integration.