Methods of Estimates
Basic Olicognograph: Simulation
Price or Values of Reference
Prices of Reference should be supposed to draw a system of apropriable information. Its ideal purpose would be to reflect reasonable costs as operated and anticipated, providing the minimum needed to make (or drive) the transformations expected by individuals and societies. So, even if something determined should exist and be revealed, hardly it can be well defined far from practice. Markets theories idealism have been revised and said non perfect. Many other imperfections are to be taken into account. They should not be provided just by one world trade hegemony or any other, obviously biased toward First World preferences and gully consummers, instead of anchoring maps of informative communication of such system of price to a sustainable regional unit.
In empirical studies, does it worth to have prices or values of reference approach with homogeneous pure methods of optimization ? - With reality and tangible goods it is easy to imagine that, depending on a real material economics, there should be something interesting in prices reflecting costs of production (operated - present and future - investments anticipated), fair margin of profit, time's misdjustments cover and interest payments.
At a further step, considering that prices do are pieces of information, could they includes weights or characteristic coefficients ? - related to public interest (to subsidize or regulate) some use and for sustainability appraisal. To have a perspective by side of artificial psychosociological sense of utility, in a subsidiary way of public power (balancing between economies of scale, social costs and social public leverage . And also to understand, by side of more fundamental sustainable costs, like could be more easilly defined by the thermodynamics-energetic costs of productions. But there is stil more theoretical relations to make between expressions of prices and values: like for pricing energetic functions, taking into account diversity in energetic terms and operating democracy.
With a wholist perspective and material effects of tangible or intangible goods and services, we can imagine to enlarge economics' perspective, from the simplest forms of what is traded and exchanged, with payments for precautions and people's involvements (they may help to save costs), up to any anthropogenic transformations of given ecosystemic units. So as to use all that in economic methods of decisions, for humane sustainable development (not just for dialectic and rhetoretical purpose). Caring that humane sustainable development does not necessarilly means material maximum consumption qualified progress.
This may look like widening too much the perspective of economics and expose it too much to complexity if without understanding of simplifications of tables of prices and values of reference: as financial objective expressions and also due information to democratic processes. So not to take precautions with the purpose to exhaust public finance, uncare the virtues of savings and ignore the modesty and honesty that should have human activities.
For a narrower ideal frame of prices of reference data, we provide in tables, intermediate results of some years shaping costs. In some months we will try to deliver a system of shadow prices adjustment. For the time being it would be to consider, for any concept of cost estimate, at least 3 perspectives like:
1) a democratic unitary cost (in our case since a sort of social group of potential equilibrium: per capita), 2) a technical concern for feasibility, like here a unitary cost by area (cost per square meters) or other relevant amount of the concept of social infrastructure (standart average area of corresponding infrastructure); 3) a time's complement (which has been missed here) would be like the life time of the building (implicitly made for one year investment). The schedule of desimbursment for investment, standart pattern of project schedule, like taking into account: average life, emergencies or priorities of projects, probable conjoncture, business cycles. Meanwhile all that, can vary a lot according places.
To find some homogeneity to this system of unitary prices, so as estimates could reflect a logic of structure. In further work we will try to design a system of weights, coefficient or correctors to take into account sustainability. Independent, particular, special or individual construction of values should succeed to give sense to democratic, humane, sustainable development. It should care core and reasonable issues but should be not unique-minded.
A system of prices ought have some humane standard roots; related to technological realities and thermodynamics issues. As a material price or standard cost of material production to anchor it to sustainability considerations. These roots of value priced are to compare to local realities. It should also reflect some of human social speculations where the private, public and humanes values have some right to interfere.
Pratically here it is not to pretend our suggestions of price to be perfect. They have been more elaborated with an empirical purpose of exploring and simulate interest and other ideas of algebra (we hope to explain before the end of this year:
- Pointly proceeding with many heterogenous data we had to made it fast, jumping from harmonization of estimates to scales and diffusion by proximity of concept, similarity of complexity, and so on (actually a matter of 2 thousands of lines of typical projects, mainly of infrastructure with some 30 columns of concepts of costs),
- We intented to root prices and/or values in physical real economics (if not yet in the present tables in thermodynamics amounts pricing it is nevertheless to imagine that cost price of production have some consistent relation with, like through labour, energetic and transport parts included,
- Have as shadow structure of costs some idea of amounts and quantitites to manage.