Mathematical behaviors of Issues and Projects
Management of a project observes various periods, more or less confused and with overlaps: with complexity, information process never end and always is to update;meanwhile the business of project intents to seek coherence and consistency of commitments. But to ease with sequencing, with cycle of projects' management. Because this economics may be driven more by dynamics of renewal of projects and less by medium and long term effectiveness of projects, by side of determinist views you may have to ensure a positive prevision of means or an optimistic prediction on goals, any supposed to agree so convergence could be. With complex thinking this care short term of reviews of scheduled, re-schedule and tight follow up of the project, and of its different parts. To keep updates of networks, maintain constrains or correlations as well as give enough scales to opportunities positive to the advancement of the projet.
With determinist goals are supposed to happen naturally and/or to be probabilistically strongly meaned: average or first moment of distributions, estimates of prediction make sense. On average the central mean fairly happens. With a more probabilist undeterminism this 'clearance' is not believed so real. To the contrary you may think it is not possible you can reach proper predictions. This does not mean you try to avoid them, but may have either to intent to secure major goals, either at least not end just the ones you do not want. Perhaps in a democracy, where all voices are supposed to be significant and issues are different from one to another, it is to imagine that at least someone may have the right vision, but this willnot make this one and his/her prediction right. Before thinkng that the author author of prediction is blessed and should be obeyed you better have to find good social issues, well framed and everyone one with the same probability to be blessed once. It is to be consistent commitments with the results, precautions and democratic rights. Coincidentally some individuals would anyhow be right. In due respect to democracy, it is not to reward just for that or let pretend that any can be the "choosen one".
In most random sorts of mathematical behaviors there are probabilistic areas but means or average may have poor sense. Either you are surprised by result(s) since you did not imagine that catastrophic events could happen and did not prepare (but fater then not trust plot's theory or theologic thesis), either it is conceivably undetermined. Types of mathematical behaviors of trajectories and the art of management of anticipation and predictions you may develop, reminding nevertheless that a determinist world (emerged with a variety of mechanisms) has filled the space of balances, imbalances and rules not only according your fancies and your project, forced expressions of convenience and imposed interests, biais, transform and should not after the rules you want but some you can follow. Working frames you may choose eventually according justification but will not have the last word. Now, traditionally Elements for Designing Public Infrastructure Procurement may observe:
- " Client-defined scope [wide the perspective to social interest of everyones and assess compatibilities].
- Head-to-head competition among producers [competition between producers depends often on degree of assymetry between them and respect of buyers],
- Fair treatment of actual competitors [this is always to consider also with the realiability of environmental network(s), competitition is something related to the interest of givers of orders, but sustainability come often more from the future reliability of links potentially able to allow future solutions to complex problems and situations],
- Transparency - Signaling fair treatment to potential competitors [a wise basic intent to sustain trustworthiness],
- Safety confirmed - An independent engineering check on the efficacy of the producer's design [in a wider sense of safety, rules that will apply, if your project may be not in accordance with law disposition but need also to be easy to operate, if costs preventions have been taken],
- Competitions open to technological change [always to balance with the capacity of absorption, including the one of your competitors and the level of complexity of management, required to meet the basic utilities],
- Sound financial analysis by clients and producers over the project life cycle [an eye on wider values],
- Re-establishing the dual track procurement strategy [overview of sustainable procurement policy],
- Client decision-making at the portfolio level with the assistance of scenarii,
- Re-establishing pace (or level) of infrastructure investment as a variable in public and private sectors". (Miller)
"Project Management contemplates":
- Defining project objectives and providing the drive and determination to deliver successful, measurable outcomes [include in the analysis the democratic outcomes: not to create any unbearable negative effects to other people and find a minimum of common share between everyone, via involvement and care of cultural issues (out absurd corruption].
- Building a project team and getting them to work towards delivery of a common goal.
- Using project plans and critical path analysis to assign tasks and time's scales, monitor progress & quality of outcomes".
"Breakthrough thinking / brokerage can care:
- Creative thinking, makie lateral connections, have effective networking.
- Bringing together unusual combinations of people, skills and plans to leverage each component and ending up with much more than the sum of the parts [synergies, leverage, accelerating or threshold effects].
- Brokering, facilitating & managing deals between very different stakeholders in all aspects of sustainable communities.
- Thinking outside the box".
"Team/partnership working within and between teams based on a shared sense of purpose
- A genuine desire for the team, collectively, to 'win' [not without the proudness to have done it well and with socially positive effects and results].
- A 'can do' attitude which looks at problems as challenges and opportunities, not risks and threats [socially risks taking are nevertheless to care: too many irresponsible leave the field or the firm uncaring the unsustainable secondary effects they induced; meanwhile failures are easier to carry if efforts have been really made].
- The ability to create a networked environment where advice is sought and readily given, coaching is rewarded, and teams are created with the right skills, as well as the right paper qualifications".
Innovative perspectives on Capital Project Management are turning their attention on 4 aspects
- Capital Projects Design-Build (DB).
- Design-Build Operate Maintain (DBOM).
- Design-Build Finance Operate (DBFO).
- Full Delivery or Program Management.
To assess projects several tools are used. They can be "classified along four main dimensions:
- As analytical framework from which they emerged and within which they mostly operate,
- The characteristics on suitability for policy, programme or project evaluation,
- Suitability of tools for different phases of policy analysis (i.e. ex-ante, monitoring or ex-post),
- The extent they rely on statistical or mathematical methods or tools or on ‘softer’ methods".
A framework for the Future of Infrastructures' Project Quantification
Times' Concepts in Project Management
Processes of transformations, included in a project, give plenty of different confusing frames of times. There is Project Cycle Management which, may be derived from cash-flow management and business dedicated to the making, care more the launching and establishment of project up to, and as close as possible to time of delivery. Then when the business goes 'bulling' the interest is more with going on in new projects. While, when the business climate is 'bearing', the strategy could be more to prolonge times and client services to existing projects. This is understandable in a one major firm managing a variety of projects; but not always sane in firms which business just rely on that and on others' financing (as public ones). Plenty of institutions, like of aid and cooperation have set cycles of projects, originally often conceive on a basis of 5 years plan or less. Sometimes more on periods of delivery of their policies with shorter term like 2 or 3 years or the local terms of political local national agendas. But in terms of intermediated geopolicies it also to see that the presence of a given cooperation can have many more years and some projects can have evolved during more than a decade, meanwhile not at the gauge of a project but to the one of geopolicyics.
Life cycle management may look like more commited to options but still has rigidities, like not letting much choice to financers, when whole package is including maintenance, and so on. Also it may be tightened by technological investments and equipments, non-client free relations with professionals, training programs, to extend dependence. In the diversity of compoments and elements or pieces of project include hierarchical orderings under (or after) largest terms, commonly of heavy equipment. These specifications biasing renewal or maintenance. uman factors, humane aspects have often been taken less into account: so generation or skills, waves of training, professionals sector buildings, sustainable configuration of branches of activities have not been properly established together with the processes of investment, infrastructure and equipment. So may be it will be the same with the huge investments required by green or sustainable industries. As well as another problem with the brain draining of globalization.
Finance of technologies lives' times ought to help the design of the sort of financial amortization and of the framings of projects' times with important technological components. For example, recovery periods for Energy Plant Generators are:
- Alternative energy property (non utility generators): 5 - 12years,
- Alternative energy property (public utility generators) - 7years,
- Nuclear production plant 15 - 20years,
- Nuclear fuel assemblies: 5years, 5) Hydro production plant : 20 - 50years,
- Steam production plant: 20 - 28years,
- Combustion turbine production plant : 15 - 20years,
- Transmission and distribution plant : 20years, 9) Nonresidential red property: 31.5 - 40years.
Intangible Goods elements too have depreciation rate (which inverse gives the average years of values interest):
- Computerized information other than software (0.33, that is 3years)
- Applied Scientific Research and Development (0.20 that is 5years)
- Non scientific Investigation (0.20 that is 5 years)
- Brand equity (0.60, less than 2years)
- Firm-specific resources (0.40, less than 3years).
Of course in the process to schedule all components of a project it is to consider the main, stronguer and larger element. On that what should be renewed, maintained, reinvested, and so on. To include also other effects on dynamics, that could be somehow predicted: obsolescence, reduction or increase of costs. Accounting being all about that, is helpfull; meanwhile their are many sort of policies and green sustainable strategies needing to be taken also into account. Wise human ressources management should be inspired by that, the cycles of life and the sustainability of environments.
Standard Project Life Management
Life-Cycle Management of Sustainable Public Infrastructure with an emphasis in energy saving and carbon reduction observe according Chern & Liu:
- "Feasibility Phase:
- Define the needs and the scope of the proposed project for meeting the social strategic objective and anticipated economic development. This may involve an inventory analysis of evaluating the conditions and performance adequacies.
- Evaluate all solution options including the advantages and disadvantages of each option, the option to repair and rehabilitation.
- Estimate the life-cycle costs over the whole life of the project. In addition to the design and construction costs; adequate operating costs, maintenance and management costs for the life of the project.
- Establish the energy saving and carbon reduction goals or substituting alternatives if the goals are unattainable.
2) Planning and Design Phase: there are multi-disciplinary processes. Energy saving and carbon reduction measures should be addressed during this phase. These measures may include the use of performance-based design, least dimension and least-weight design, application of high-performance materials, use of recycled materials, as well as specifying high efficiency electrical equipment and renewable energies.
- Develop and use performance-based design and specifications.
- Use high-performance, high-strength materials for least-dimension and least-weight design strategies. These strategies reduce the size and weight of the project and reduce the amount of construction materials and costs.
- Use sustainable construction materials and products by evaluating several characteristics such as reused and recycled content, high recyclability, and durability. Use locally available materials and products will reduce transportation costs and energy.
- Maximum use of supplementary cementing materials such as fly ash, ground-granulated blast-furnace slag, and silica fume to replace some of the portland cement in concrete construction. These supplementary cementing materials not only recover industrial byproduct, generate no or fewer CO2 emissions, avoid disposal, but also improve durability.
- Incorporate environmental (green) design to enhance and protect.
- Planning and design efficient electrical system and minimize the electric loads for heating and air conditioning system, lighting requirements, and other electrical equipment. Planning and design of renewable energies in public works projects should also be considered.
3) Construction Phase: may include reduction and reuse of excavation materials and construction wastes, use of energy efficient construction equipment, protect the environment during the construction, as follows:
- Minimize the amounts of excavation materials, balance the soil excavation and backfill layout, and reduce and reuse excavation materials and construction wastes.
- Enforce adequate construction quality assurance and quality control to ensure durable and quality construction project and minimize future repair requirements.
- Use energy efficient and high performance construction equipment.
- Promote the use of precast and construction automation technologies.
- Protect the environment by providing and protecting habitats during construction. Preserve and enhance bio-diversity and wetland ecosystem.
4) Operation and Maintenance Phase: ensure operational adequacy and energy saving and carbon reduction during the operation and maintenance phase.
- Develop a comprehensive management system, including operation and maintenance policies and regulations, budgeting, inspection requirements, and performance monitoring and evaluation system.
- Develop and maintain a performance database on maintenance records, condition assessment data, and other items that provide appropriate and timely information for decision making.
- Provide adequate funding and resources for maintenance, periodic inspection and evaluation, and proper repair and rehabilitation to achieve maximum usage of the facility.
- Perform periodic inspection, evaluation, and proper maintenance can enhance and extend the service life of the project. Extending service life instead of removal and rebuild not only requires less natural resources and energy but also minimizes environmental impacts.
- End of Service Life: When the project no longer serves the intended purposes or it is not cost effective to repair or rehabilitate, the project may be decommissioned and removed; reuse and recycle the demolition materials".